The juvenile moved more decisively than the ones in 2001 reaching Bridgend in south Wales on 22 September only eight days after leaving the Inverness area. It had travelled over 400km due S in a strong N airstream from 20-22 September. The migration, however, then went astray with the bird some 660km W of Lands End at 10:30 on 24 September and subsequently perishing, after an amazing period in the air, off Madeira on 27 September.

We can assume the youngster started its flight on 23rd at 10:30 in the morning, a typical time for raptors to become active. It is most unlikely that the bird followed the direct route from A to E. The bird would have tried to move S as it had done since leaving Inverness and the Bristol Channel is only about 20km wide at this point. It seems very reasonable to assume it reached Somerset or North Devon on the peninsula of south west England.

If the winds had stayed NE the bird would have had its chances of successfully crossing the sea considerably boosted. However, as Table 1 shows the winds moved ESE/SE during the afternoon, gusting to 29km/hour and creating a headwind and a westerly drift. Meyer et al (2000) indicate that Honey Buzzards do not like crossing the sea with a headwind greater than 14km/hour and it may be that this bird was unlucky, commencing its crossing with a NE wind which changed to SE once it was committed. The headwinds were typically 15-20km/hour in the early and middle afternoon (Table 1).

Faced with a headwind the bird could have battled directly into it, thus moving slowly and using much energy, or tended to run sideways across the wind. Point D assumes the latter but in reality of course a mixture could have occurred. The winds remained ESE at Land's End until 21:00 but they decreased during the evening. At any rate the bird missed Brittany in north west France and is postulated as being at point D 290km SW of Land's End at 22:30 on 23rd. Its journey here would have been at 41km/hour from Land's End or 47km/hour from Start Point, presumably in flap-glide mode. Meyer et al (2000) indicate that birds crossing the sea increase their speed by about 4-18km/hour to reduce the risk of drift and the time spent over the sea. So it might have been expected that the bird would have travelled at over 50km/hour but the headwind will have reduced its speed relative to the sea. If the bird had moved from point A to E directly, its progress seems slow at only 37km/hour with a favourable following wind. This is another reason for doubting that the direct route was taken.

The bird now appeared to give up its movement south and let the prevailing wind take over. It was presumably exhausted after 12 hours continuous flight and the struggle against the SE wind over the Channel. Even at this early stage it could now be considered as a wreck losing control of its flight and subject to wherever the wind took it.

On this basis the juvenile Honey Buzzard flew from 10:30 on 23 September until 07:00 on 27th, a total of about 93 hours. It travelled about 5,200km giving an average speed of 56km/hour.

• Once again it has been shown that sea and Honey Buzzards do not mix. Two out of three juveniles from Inverness tracked by satellite have now probably perished in the Atlantic Ocean while undergoing significant sea crossings.
• It is remarkable though how long the juvenile was able to keep aloft. Almost 100 hours is much more than would have been expected and the distance travelled of over 5,000km indicates that raptors could be wrecked anywhere, even the other side of an ocean. Records Committees will need to take this on board.
• The problems of raptors crossing open water into a headwind are particularly emphasised by this bird's problems and that of the bird that went to Ireland in 2001. This year's bird may have lost control after around 12 hour's flight in total including seven to nine hours over the sea.
• The reason why Honey Buzzards are so keen on land bridges is also emphasised. It is not so much a stamina problem as the problem of loss of control when the sea is crossed.
• As well as illustrating why northern Scottish populations of Honey Buzzards are not performing as well as expected, this year's flight may also explain why the Honey Buzzard has failed to colonise the south west England peninsula in spite of much suitable habitat. Juveniles from south west England could readily stray down to Land's End keeping their grip on land until the last possible moment. Unless the winds are westerly they could then easily miss a landing in Brittany. This seems a more likely explanation than a decline in the wasp population due to mild winters (which has been recounted).
• Juveniles from, say, north east England are better placed. Moving due south they are likely to cross the Channel from the Isle of Wight or Portland Bill. Even in the conditions on the 23rd, Figure 1 shows that birds from these locations drifting west would still make landfall in Brittany.
• Originally it looked as if the preference for eastern Britain by Honey Buzzards might be climatic. It may be though that it is a question of migration routes for juveniles: first-time passage birds in westerly areas are at a considerable disadvantage to those in eastern areas. It is a very interesting picture that the studies based in Inverness are showing in this respect.